The INVESTMENTmatters Subscription Service

The full Weekly Investment Markets Overview is available as part of our Subscription only service This extensive Investment Information Service incorporates:-

  • Weekly Investment Markets Overview Newsletter  
  • Investmentimer Technical Analysis Service  
  • INVESTMENTmatters Market insight service


This will save you hours of Research and Technical Analysis, It will be your source of valuable information information all in one place, the work has been done for you through painstaking expert sifting of relevant information, presenting you with concise and easy to access Reports, Charts & Graphics, to aid you in making the best Investment Decisions.

This Blog now shows a ‘taster’ of the regular Weekly Investment Markets Overview Newsletter

Thank you for your interest, I look forward to being of service to you in the future, please do not hesitate to post a comment or contact me if you have particular requirements for investment information.

Charlie Aitken

________________________________________________________________

How Watching Market Psychology Can Help You Time the Market

Elliott wave patterns in price charts reflect the struggle between the bulls and bears
By Elliott Wave International

 

Two economic reports hit the newswires Thursday morning (March 6). Both were important, yet each one had the opposite implication for the trend. The market chose one report over the other, and the question is, why — and what can we learn from that? Read more.

________________________________________________________________

Investment Markets Overview—W/E 15th August 2014

It was a month ago this week that Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo SA jolted global markets when it missed short-term debt payments and shares in Espirito Santo fell 17 percent in days as investors’ rushed to the exit door on concerns that financial problems within the Espirito Santo group were understated, despite the “reassurance on containment,” by policymakers including the Central Bank and the regulators. Investors’ were correct to bail -out (excuse the pun,) as less than a week later the group filed for protection from its creditors with liabilities far higher than first suggested. That said, the share price had already slumped by 90% since its March 2014 high and by 99% since its 2007 all-time high, when BES’s destruction was sown by it amassing far too much debt for acquisitions. This week it was African Bank Investments Ltd turn to have its shares suspended and to be “rescued,” by the South African Reserve Bank, after its share price collapsed by 95% over the previous week and by 99% from its more recent all-time high of April 2012. African Bank’s troubles apparently stemmed from its Rand 9.2BN acquisition of a furniture business back in 2008, which prompted losses and write-downs after sales fell, which is hardly surprising given the very high consumer debt levels within SA. We may learn of the full situation at leisure but the real moral of these two events are that most half-decent chartists would have recommended an exit from these companies way before the “news hit the fan.”

15 August 14

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

The George Clooney of the Central Banking world, Charmer Carney, was on parade this week   …..

Charts:
1.Indices Weekly
2.US Consumer Confidence V S&P 500 Stock-Index
3.E-Z GDP V German GDP
4.Japan M3 MS V Japan GDP
5.Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

Just who regulates the Regulators?

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 8th August 2014

This week saw the centenary of the start of the first World War, or the “Great War” as it’s been termed, with the media awash with patriotic coverage of the events leading up to it, commemorations to the brave souls who perished in it, and of course the reminders that it was to be, “the end of any further wars and that we should never forget,” when in reality it’s been nothing but one conflict after another ever since and more aptly worded as, “lest we remember,” just how man’s stupidity and intransience started them in the first place. Human beings appear programmed to repeat the folly of the past and that applies to markets and the economy also. The post 2007 “all fall down,” was the worst since the great depression of the early 1930s and the reaction to that was much like the actions of policy-makers and Central Bankers’ of today. They said back then how the “beggar thy neighbour” trade disputes exacerbated the economic “correction” which followed the market crash and vowed to “never again.” Fast forward 80+ years and this week sees a ratcheting up of the trade sanctions between Russia and the “West,” not to mention the escalating “beggar thy neighbour,” policies on the currency front.

8 August 14

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

The UK Government rattles on about austerity and yet it is still running an annual budget deficit of £100BN with   …..

Charts:
1.Indices Weekly
2.US Consumer Credit  V Various Asset Classes
3.UK New Car Registrations V GDP
4.HK Jewellery Purchases V Macau Gaming Revenues
5.Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

Politics requires many attributes, which doesn’t necessarily include Honesty.”

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

 

Investmentment Markets Overview — W/E 1st August 2014

The Governor of the Bank of England announced plans that would see rule-breaking bankers return bonuses up to seven years after receiving them, even if the said bankers have spent them, saying that bank misconduct had been “reprehensible” and “bordering on criminality.” Earlier this year, Charmer Carney, hinted that this plan is to ensure bad practice is not rewarded, going onto say that it would apply, “if senior staffs are found to have taken risks that were not fully understood and if there are conduct issues.” Whilst few will criticise the rhetoric, it’s a bit rich coming from the likes of the Central Banks, who have run a coach and horses through so called free-markets and impoverished a generation of savers and the elderly, not to mention the implicit encouragement to usually risk adverse savers’ into what will be seen to be the most risky of asset classes. Furthermore, if he really wishes to reverse the culture of “rewarding failure,” he could start with his predecessor, Mervyn King, rewarded handsomely for consistently missing his main objectives, stable prices, financial stability and confidence in the currency ; Hector Sants, the chief UK regulator who totally missed the warning signs of the 2007 market rout and the atrocious banking practices subsequently exposed, who were both knighted for their efforts, and last but not least, the regulator (his name will be spared) in charge of the team which failed over its supervision of Northern Rock yet received a £529,000 golden handshake, in April 2008 for what?

1 August 14

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

Global markets, and by that we mean the majority of them, whether they be stocks, bonds, commodities  …..

Charts:
1.Indices Weekly
2.US Inventories & Average Earnings V GDP
3.EU Exposure to Russia
4.China Loans V the Shanghai Composite
5.Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

A Chain is only as strong as its weakest link.”

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

Investment Markets Overview — Week Ending 25th July 2014

The cost for the US Treasury to borrow 2-year money has soared by 240% in less than three years, whilst the cost of it borrowing for 10 or 30 years have jumped by 80% and 34% respectively over the past two years, even allowing for the “bear market rally” in the 10 & 30-year yields since the start of 2014. Meanwhile, annualised US GDP has collapsed from the 3.3% rate of Q211 to a pathetic 1.5% rate as of Q114. For those of you trying to “join up the dots,” on what’s going on, which doesn’t include the world’s central banks, the world bank, the IMF and the myriad of other clueless, tax-payer funded entities, who when asked (infrequently if ever) why rates are rising reply by saying because “economic growth is recovering.” Really? One only has to look at the huge debt load bearing down on the United States and elsewhere, essentially the cause of the 2007 GFC, and massively compounded by policy-makers since, hence economic growth is collapsing once more whilst the borrowing costs are rising due to investor’ concerns on being repaid.

25 July 14

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

Returning to the rise in borrowing costs, a short trip down memory lane is in order. In 1980 nominal  …..

Charts:
1.Indices Weekly
2.US Housing Prices & Durable Goods V GDP
3.UK Govt Borrowing V UK Debt/GDP
4.Japan GDP Consensus  V the Nikkei Dow
5.Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

Contrarianism isn’t just a word, it’s a way of life.”

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

Investment Markets Overview — Week Ending 18th July 2014

It’s becoming a bore commenting on the World’s leading Central Bankers, but as they are publically jaw-boning on an almost daily basis now, particularly on “policy guidance” and other such nonsense, together with the irrefutable sway that they appear to hold on the investment community, we will continue to interpret their machinations in an honest and frank manner. The bosses of the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB were all on parade this week, appearing before their respective “political controllers.” First up was the comely Queen Yellen who had back to back testimonies in front of the Senate Banking Committee, where she raised concerns over smaller company stock valuations, having been oblivious to any “bubbles” just a short week earlier. Share prices of some the largest employers within the US duly tanked on the statement. The following day, appearing before the House Financial Services Committee, she said,” asset values aren’t out of line with norms and my general assessment at this point is that threats to financial stability are at a moderate level and not a very high level.” Clear as mud then, but at least stocks managed to recoup some of the losses. Meanwhile, Mario “I’ll do whatever it takes” Draghi, testifying before the European Parliament, announced a plan to become more “Fed-like,” by way of publicised minutes of meetings, which although in theory should provide greater transparency, will likely further politicise the 24 members of the ECB’s governing council, who all remain tied to their own member states. Finally, charmer Carney, appearing before the UK’s Treasury Committee, explained that the curbs on the housing market were introduced not because people would be unable to pay those loans, but to head off the impact of such high household indebtedness on the economy. This from the former Governor of Canada’s central bank, who presided over a jump from 142% to 163% debt to disposable income between February 2008 and June 2013 whilst there.

18 July 14

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

The financial newswires were unanimous in their rationale for the increased market volatility witnessed this week and for Thursday’s market sell-off …..

Charts:
1.Indices Weekly
2.US Housing Starts V Prices V Confidence
3.UK Real Wage Growth
4.Singapore GDP V Electronic Exports
5.Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

Rational People OR Emotional Sheeple?.”

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

 

Spot the Difference? UK House Prices.

Our “UK Housing Hints,” penned just over a year ago, highlighted the yawning gap between the Rightmove asking price and the average UK house price, stating that the monthly Rightmove survey is very useful for gauging “sentiment,” as opposed to any guidance as to where prices are going, particularly as it tends to “lag” the average house price index rather than “lead” it, when compared to the Halifax average house price index. At the time the gap stood at 33%, as shown below.

17 July Blog 1

We also noted that the correlation between the asking price and actual price were in lock-step before the bubble burst, which continued through the 2007-early 2009 rout, albeit not quite to the same degree, before they subsequently diverged, describing the gap as Hope versus Reality.

Fast forward one year and a heck of a lot of tax-payer assistance and what do we now see:

17 July Blog 2

Both prices have moved higher but the gap remains wide, at 32%, so no great difference between hope and reality.

A final chart compares net mortgage lending, which jumped to £2BN in May versus the £1.7BN witnessed for April against average UK house prices, this time courtesy of the nationwide.

17 July Blog 3

We see another yawning gap here, which poses the question, “spot the difference post 2007?” Either house buyers are finding other sources of funding or Johnny foreigner really is buying up with cash, but in downtown Bradford as well as prime London.

Whatever the reason, a chart like this suggests there will be a reversion to the norm. Either mortgage lending is about to rocket higher, after the stringent lending controls recently enforced, OR, hope will really meet with reality via a collapse in house prices that will make 2007/09 look like a tea-party.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen.

Investment Markets Overview — Week Ending 11 July 2014.

Investor complacency, which has never been higher in respect of just about all investment asset-classes as measured by sentiment and volatility readings, took a hit this week thanks to concerns within both Portugal and Puerto Rica. Portugal’s second-largest bank, Espirito Santo, missed payments on commercial paper, sparking fears of further problems within the country’s banking sector and for the wider economy as Portugal tussles with a Debt / GDP ratio of 129%, the third largest within the Euro-Zone, whilst Portugal’s corporate Debt/GDP is at a nose-bleed level of 250%. Meanwhile, Puerto Rica’s debt, which ranks at No 3 of US states after California and New York has soared to $73 BN and more worrying is owned by about two-thirds of the US municipal bond fund sector. It took a turn for the worse this week as Puerto Rico’s Governor proposed changing the law allowing public utilities, such as the commonwealth’s main power authority, to negotiate with bondholders to reduce their debt loads. Ironically,after pumping $US Trillions into the financial system over the past few years, and thereby creating the morale hazard of investor complacency, the same central bankers now say they’re worried that it is increasing the likelihood of market instability, without a jot of responsibility in respect of their contributions to it.

11 July 14

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

Just as “crowd-funding” is transforming the means of raising business capital away from the banks, a new online business is reducing the cost of trading Gold and Bitcoins …..

Charts:
1.Indices Weekly
2.US Treasury Federal Budget Debt
3.UK Wages ONS V KPMG
4.Japan PPI V M2 Money-Supply
5.Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

When volatility is low, risks gets hidden.”

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

 

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.