The INVESTMENTmatters Subscription Service

The full Weekly Investment Markets Overview is available as part of our Subscription only service This extensive Investment Information Service incorporates:-

  • Weekly Investment Markets Overview Newsletter  
  • Investmentimer Technical Analysis Service  
  • INVESTMENTmatters Market insight service


This will save you hours of Research and Technical Analysis, It will be your source of valuable information information all in one place, the work has been done for you through painstaking expert sifting of relevant information, presenting you with concise and easy to access Reports, Charts & Graphics, to aid you in making the best Investment Decisions.

This Blog now shows a ‘taster’ of the regular Weekly Investment Markets Overview Newsletter

Thank you for your interest, I look forward to being of service to you in the future, please do not hesitate to post a comment or contact me if you have particular requirements for investment information.

Charlie Aitken

________________________________________________________________

How Watching Market Psychology Can Help You Time the Market

Elliott wave patterns in price charts reflect the struggle between the bulls and bears
By Elliott Wave International

 

Two economic reports hit the newswires Thursday morning (March 6). Both were important, yet each one had the opposite implication for the trend. The market chose one report over the other, and the question is, why — and what can we learn from that? Read more.

________________________________________________________________

Apple Crumble

Apple crumble is a British pudding that apparently originated during World War II food rationing as a cheap, nutritious filler, particularly during the autumn season when apples are plentiful.

Apple Inc. is an American multinational technology company, head-quartered in California, which designs, develops, and sells expensive consumer electronics, including the Mac personal computer, the iPad tablet computer and, of course the iPhone smart-phone, which has turned Apple into the world’s most valuable brand.

However, its 13-year run of quarterly revenue growth came to a crashing halt last month when the tech giant reported revenue of $50.6BN, lower by 13% thanks to soft iPhone sales, particularly within the company’s largest market, China, which is slowing down rapidly.

The changed sentiment to the company actually changed well ahead of the most recent financials, as can be seen within the following 4-year chart of Apple’s weekly price history:

 26 May 16 1 .

The beauty of charts and the art of “technical analysis,” show that it was over a year ago, in early May 2015 that Apple’s share price peaked at $133 versus the current $99.6, a 25% fall in value.

As with the observations made on “Tesco, every little helps,” and “Oil price collapse, why the surprise,” our proprietary colour-coded trading signals, together with simple TA tools such as moving averages and momentum indicators, gave ample warning in respect of Apple, before the loss in value and the faltering quarterly results. Kindly note that Apple’s stock price remains within the black dashed trend-channel since that date, a falling trend-channel. I will return to comment on the horizontal purple-line.

Legendary investor, Warren Buffett, has just stepped up to the plate and bought $US1BN of Apple stock, itself a surprise being as WB is on record as saying that he avoids tech stocks as he doesn’t understand them. Perhaps he is tempted by the rumours of more stock buy-backs from Apple’s enormous cash pile, not that it’s a particularly efficient use of company cash.

Before you are also tempted to follow WB’s lead, it is worth a closer look at Apple’s more recent price history:

26 May 16 2 .

By zooming in to show Apple’s daily price over the past year or so, one can observe the following:

  • The colour-coded Sell, Neutral and Buy signal panels have caught the twist and turns of the price pretty well for active traders.
  • Price remains below both moving averages, with the 50-day below the 200-day, a very bearish situation
  • Whilst the big red-arrow highlights WB’s recent $US1BN buy, note the “gap” highlighted by the blue-circle. Stock prices have a habit of “filling the gap” before resuming the trend leading to the gap, in this case lower.

So, all in all, the chart of Apple remains bearish, albeit that it has moved from a sell to neutral via our colour-coded signal panels. Furthermore, the significance of that horizontal purple-line shown within the first chart is that it’s a “support-shelf,” tested on three occasions so far by the share-price, after which it bounced higher. IF this support-shelf gives way at $US92, and we expect that it will, then Apple’s share- price will “crumble” rapidly towards the $US60 area, some 40% lower from here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 20th May 2016

It was another volatile week for the financial markets, buffeted by the mid-week FOMC hint that the US Fed funds interest rate will rise in June, whilst further unsubstantiated speculative predictions over Brexit continued to unsettle the UK markets. US “market rates” certainly took the hint seriously, as the 5-year bond yield spiked higher by 13.5%, whilst the £/$ exchange rate saw a game of two-halves, jumping by 2.3% from Monday to Thursday, only to give back half of the gain during Friday’s trading session. The precious metals complex also witnessed a wide trading range, as investor complacency over the Fed’s true intentions (understandable given their flip-flopping of late,) and the Dollar’s recent strength, questioned the fundamentals behind the PM bull-phase year-to-date. Japan narrowly avoided a “technical recession” in the first quarter of 2016, meaning two quarters of back to back negative GDP readings. That said, the 0.5% Q116 figure is a far cry from the 3.6% number achieved in Q489, just as their then mountain of debt was about to de-flate, taking grossly inflated asset values with it. Fast-forward 26-years and the Nikkei Dow stock index is still 57% lower than at December 1989 whilst land prices….well, despite years of stimulus after stimulus, we show them within the Asia section further on.

 20 May 2016

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

  The G7 Finance Ministers and their central Bank todies met up in Japan this week and, as expected, played down the cumulatative evidence  ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Market Int Rates V FOMC Rate
3. UK Wages V UK Retail Sales
4. Japan Debt V Japan GDP and Land Prices
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“Garbage in = Garbage out Doesn’t Only Apply to Computers.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

 

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 20th May 2016

It was another volatile week for the financial markets, buffeted by the mid-week FOMC hint that the US Fed funds interest rate will rise in June, whilst further unsubstantiated speculative predictions over Brexit continued to unsettle the UK markets. US “market rates” certainly took the hint seriously, as the 5-year bond yield spiked higher by 13.5%, whilst the £/$ exchange rate saw a game of two-halves, jumping by 2.3% from Monday to Thursday, only to give back half of the gain during Friday’s trading session. The precious metals complex also witnessed a wide trading range, as investor complacency over the Fed’s true intentions (understandable given their flip-flopping of late,) and the Dollar’s recent strength, questioned the fundamentals behind the PM bull-phase year-to-date. Japan narrowly avoided a “technical recession” in the first quarter of 2016, meaning two quarters of back to back negative GDP readings. That said, the 0.5% Q116 figure is a far cry from the 3.6% number achieved in Q489, just as their then mountain of debt was about to de-flate, taking grossly inflated asset values with it. Fast-forward 26-years and the Nikkei Dow stock index is still 57% lower than at December 1989 whilst land prices….well, despite years of stimulus after stimulus, we show them within the Asia section further on.

 20 May 2016

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

  The G7 Finance Ministers and their central Bank todies met up in Japan this week and, as expected, played down the cumulatative evidence  ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Market Int Rates V FOMC Rate
3. UK Wages V UK Retail Sales
4. Japan Debt V Japan GDP and Land Prices
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“Garbage in = Garbage out Doesn’t Only Apply to Computers.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

 

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 13th May 2016

The head of the IMF and the Bank of England strayed out of their respective “non-political” mandate (s) this week, as they both gave dramatic “end of the world” warnings should Britain vote to leave the European Union, that “bastion of efficiency and the locomotive of global economic growth.” As with the recent UK Pro-European Treasury report, which also had the gall to predict long-term adverse consequences should the British people decide that they want out, when the treasury or the OFR OR any of these other luminaries such as the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD and the myriad of other “official or un-official” bodies which cannot even predict economic data one-year ahead, Lagarde and Carney preside over organisations with an abysmal track record of predicting anything, economic or otherwise, including economic growth forecasts, GDP, which have been consistently wrong every quarter since 2012. In fact, via this column, it has been demonstrated, factually that both organisations re-act to events and are never pro-active before events occur.

 13 May 2016

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

  Space precludes the litany of financial predictions, in the main nothing more than an extrapolation of the past into the future, or just plain wrong ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Auto Loan Delinquencies Jump
3. UK Base Rate V UK Market Interest Rates
4. China Debt/GDP by Sector
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“Brexit or otherwise, do your own research and make your judgement.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

 

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 6th May 2016

We’ll get into the minutia of this week’s economic data shortly, but at first wish to observe a “co-incidence” of events that perhaps have significance in respect of the finance sector, or more pointedly the publics’ attitude towards it. First up is the ECB’s announcement this week to discontinue the production of the Euro’s highest denomination note, the €500, on the non-substantiated claim that “high-denomination bills are used for criminal purposes,” itself a bit rich coming from Draghi who, like other central bank chiefs,’ preside over the largest “Ponzi Schemes” in history. There have been similar suggestions for the Swiss Franc 1000 note, which has seen a huge demand by a growing band of sceptics on the safety, or otherwise, of the banking system and who also have concerns over the “negative interest rate” policies of late. Next up is the Chinese authorities recognition of the potential social unrest due to the spate of recent failures of investment firms and lenders, put bluntly as the collapse of 1000 online lenders and fraud at a growing number of wealth management firms, as evidenced by their ordering many of these surviving firms to break their leases and cover their shop-fronts, again ironic given that the Chinese government have been encouraging these firms to provide loans to small businesses that can no longer obtain credit through the traditional banking system. This is continued below.

   6 May 16 2 .

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

 Returning to the earlier comment in respect of the finance within Europe and China and to which we can also add the US, by way of the long-flagged default on  ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Average Wages V US Non-Farm Payrolls
3. E-Z Retail PMI V E-Z Retail Sales
4. OZ Household Debt to Incomes V  OZ Mortgage Debt
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“Save us from the career politician or bureaucrat as they can only theorise about life.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

 

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 29 April 2016

Apple Inc, the world’s largest listed company, took a bruising this week as iphone sales took a bite out of the company’s quarterly earnings, lower for the first time in 13-years, with its stock price starting to crumble, lower by 11% on the week and by 30% over the past year. Reality has caught up with Apple in respect of China’s rapidly slowing economy, its major market for smart-phone sales, whose vast population has joined the collective conservatism growing around the wider world, a collective social mood of less spending and uncertainty, compounded by the irresponsible antics of the world’s central banking elite, all busy trying to create ever more debt to produce “stuff” for which there is already massive over-capacity, be it steel or smart-phones. Meanwhile, as it becomes crystal clear that any private sector saviour for the UK’s beleaguered steel industry would not take on it’s pension deficits, haemorrhaging by the day due to central bank initiated policies of zero and negative interest rate policies, the High St retail chain, British Home Stores, went into administration, not only jeopardising 11,000 jobs but adding a further £570m pension deficit to the “Pension Protection Fund,” a statutory fund set up in 2004 intended to protect pensioners if their pension fund becomes insolvent. The PPF is funded by a levy on the rapidly diminishing “defined benefit” pension providers, with the PPF’s first year levy raised at £130m it now runs at about £700m pa, with the collective DB pension deficit now allegedly at an eye-watering £250BN. There is more on BHS and the key CBs below.

 29 April 2016 3 

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

   Returning to the BHS troubles it is worth a brief tour of history, starting with its birth in 1928,  ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Consumer Confidence V US Personal Consumption
3. UK Housing Transations
4. Japan Monetary Base V  Japan Money Velocity
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“This puts a whole new meaning to the pound store concept and just who is green?

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

 

Timing Japan

Japanese stocks, the Yen and gold are topics highlighted year-to-date within these postings, emphasising the relationship between these three asset classes via “A Yen for a Loss” penned in January, “A Yen for Gold” in February, moving on to, “A Yen for a Crash” earlier this month, which summarised as follows:

Keeping it short and simple: Stronger Yen = Lower Stocks & Higher Gold

The home-work appears to be falling on deaf-ears, certainly as far as the Bank of Japan is concerned, as a recent Bloomberg report states that it now holds over half of the nation’s exchange traded funds (ETFs) which are effectively stock-index trackers, making it a top 10 share-holder in about 90% of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average constituents:

29 April 2016

The Bank of Japan, of course, beats to a different drum than serious market analysis, deluding themselves and many others, that they and their counter-parts at the other central banks can really control Mr Market.

One look at the performance and volatility of the Nikkei and the Yen this year confirms that they not only have no control of the markets, it’s just a perception they have created, but they and their legion of followers, many of whom have stewardship over your pension and investments, are about to receive a major wake-up call:

29 April 2016 2

You do not have to be as blind as the central banks and their disciples; in fact you do not even have to do the research in respect of when and where to invest in respect of Japan and the other major regional stock-indices:

The first 100 lucky applicants to contact me are offered a 3-month free of charge access to our “Off the Peg,” service, which covers the main stock-indices of the US, UK, Japan, Europe X the UK, Asia X Japan, and $Gold, including any intra-month signal changes that transpire.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.