The INVESTMENTmatters Subscription Service

The full Weekly Investment Markets Overview is available as part of our Subscription only service This extensive Investment Information Service incorporates:-

  • Weekly Investment Markets Overview Newsletter  
  • Investmentimer Technical Analysis Service  
  • INVESTMENTmatters Market insight service


This will save you hours of Research and Technical Analysis, It will be your source of valuable information information all in one place, the work has been done for you through painstaking expert sifting of relevant information, presenting you with concise and easy to access Reports, Charts & Graphics, to aid you in making the best Investment Decisions.

This Blog now shows a ‘taster’ of the regular Weekly Investment Markets Overview Newsletter

Thank you for your interest, I look forward to being of service to you in the future, please do not hesitate to post a comment or contact me if you have particular requirements for investment information.

Charlie Aitken

________________________________________________________________

How Watching Market Psychology Can Help You Time the Market

Elliott wave patterns in price charts reflect the struggle between the bulls and bears
By Elliott Wave International

 

Two economic reports hit the newswires Thursday morning (March 6). Both were important, yet each one had the opposite implication for the trend. The market chose one report over the other, and the question is, why — and what can we learn from that? Read more.

________________________________________________________________

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 27th February 2015

All eyes and ears were on Fed Chair Yellen this week, pouring over every word uttered by her during the semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee, misguidedly hoping to glean just when market interest rates will rise. Yellen duly provided her part in the “dog and pony show,” stating that the economy is on solid ground, assisted by the falling oil price and continued lower unemployment expectations, whilst omitting to mention the “slowing GDP of late” and the likely spike in job losses forthcoming from the energy sector. Of perhaps more interest was the increased push by the Republican controlled Congress to audit the Fed’s monetary policy, questioning its independence from the administration and in particular the US Treasury department. When specifically asked about her weekly or near-weekly meetings with Treasury Secretary Lew, Janet replied, “I do not discuss monetary policy or actions we are going to take with the secretary,” going on to state that,” The Federal Reserve is independent and accountable to Congress,” and “Central bank independence in conducting monetary policy is considered a best practice around the world, beyond a shadow of a doubt, independent central banks perform better.” For an excellent free 30-page+ ebook called, “Understatnding the Fed,” click EWI.

27 February 15

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

Returning to the topic of “independent central banks,” which allegedly includes the Bank of England as well as the Fed, there was ……

Charts:
1. Indices Weekly
2. US CPI  V US GDP
3. UK House Prices V UK Morgages
4. Shanghai Comp V Oil Price
5.Commodity YTD  Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“He who lobbies the most is treated more fairly.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

“Oiling the Wheels for China”

The main China stock-index, the Shanghai Composite, soared by 54% over the year to 17th February when it closed for the one week Lunar New Year holiday. The Chinese markets, including the SHcomp re-open on Wednesday 25th February with many wondering if the run can continue, particularly in view of the deteriorating economic back-drop. Aside of the rapidly slowing housing market and retail sales concerns, worries are rising in respect of the over capacity and waning profits evident within the industrial sector.

So what’s an investor to do?

As always we look to the charts for guidance and we’ll keep it brief.

24 Feb 2015 Blog 1

First up is a one-year daily chart of the SH Comp to the 17th February close, which includes the 50-day moving average and the longer term 200-day version. Kindly note that whilst the index remains above both MAs, which is bullish, it is looking somewhat stretched against the 200-day, at 20% above it.

Note also that our proprietary indicator peaked on the 7th January, followed by the nominal SH Comp on the 23rd January, which suggested a corrective period before any further gains. This period may or may not have finished so what other guidance can we glean?

24 Feb 2015 Blog 2

We note an interesting negative-correlation between the SH Comp and the Oil price, better observed by showing the crude oil price inverted.

After the 50% slump in the price of Oil during the second half of 2014 analysts are expecting a period of consolidation, with crude perhaps rallying towards the $70 a barrel level from the near $US44 low of the 28th January 2015.

As chartists we like to use tools such as “Fibonacci Retracement-levels,” for guidance, where one can note the 38.2% retracement, a typical corrective level, suggest about $70 for crude which equates to 2850 ish for the Shanghai Composite, a possible 13% correction from its close of the 17th February.

We note a similar non-correlation for Japan’s Nikkei so in conclusion would suggest that if you want to know what’s next for the East, look West and in particular at the Texas-light.

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 20th February 2015

It went right to the wire but Greece and the other Euro-Zone Nations struck a provisional deal to extend financial aid to Greece for a further four months rather than the six months requested by Greece and provides a breathing space for the new Greek government to negotiate longer-term debt relief with its EU creditors. In exchange for the extension Greece has to submit an initial list of reform measures by Monday. As always the devil is in the detail and whilst the text of the agreement allows Greece to lower previously agreed targets on reaching a budget surplus and avoids immediate tax increases and pension cuts, thus potentially freeing up some cash to meet some of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s election pledges, the list of reforms are subject to acceptance by the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission, the institutions collectively known as the troika, from which Tsipras vowed to break free. Even then the deal will be put to national parliaments next week after the Finance ministers hold a conference call on Tuesday to discuss the reform measures submitted.Uncerntainty is set to continue.

20 Feb 2015 Blog 2

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

Three of the world’s more important central banks were on parade this week, in respect of ……

Charts:
1. Indices Weekly
2. US Single  V Multi-Family Home Starts
3. UK Unemployment V UK Ave Wages
4. Japanese Yen V Japn GDP
5.Commodity YTD  Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“Act on Charts, as they do not Lie.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

Judging Japan

Japan’s most closely watched stock-index, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, closed above 18,000 this week for the first time since July 2007. Meanwhile, a busy few days for economic data out of Japan has been mixed at best.

Q414 GDP under-whelmed, coming in at 0.6% for the quarter and 2.2% annualised, against the 0.9% and 3.7% forecast. It was an improvement on Q314 and dragged Japan out of a two-quarter “recession” but looking under the bonnet one can observe a continued fall in private consumption and business spending, both engines of economic growth. Adding to the mix were disappointing retail sales in January, as measured by department store sales, whilst exports were one bright spot, jumping to 17% year-on-year versus the 13% expected and a decent improvement on December’s 12.8%.

So what is the jury to make of it?

Our “Ailing-Nomics” commentary of early September 2014, discussed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s grand plan, primarily the debasing of the Yen, showing the correlation between the Nation’s money-supply and GDP. A further overview, “Japanese Jolt” was published in November, which also showed a close correlation between retail sales and the Nikkei, reminding that a country’s main stock-index is also a leading indicator of the economy, not vice-versa as so many are taught and believe.

In Japan’s case, it’s been very important to watch the international value of the Yen, as this is not only closely tied to the fortunes of the Nikkei and further on for GDP, but also for other asset classes such as the price of gold, which we set out within November’s “Gold Watch.”

Ironically, whilst the evidence of a weaker Yen is positive for the stock-market, this doesn’t appear to be the case for the economy, as can be seen here:

18 Feb 15 Blog 1

The Yen has been inverted to better show the correlation and as can be observed, a “Stronger Yen = Stronger GDP” and vice-versa.

Judgement day may be fast approaching on whether this evidence holds up in respect of the chart observations above and those made within the earlier analysis, including the chart “resistance line,” set out for the Nikkei within the jolt commentary, which has arrived.

The outlook for Japan’s Nikkei, the Yen and for the Japanese economy are at an important juncture. The key driver, as always, will be the direction of the Nikkei, so it’s important to read this correctly.

18 Feb 15 Blog 2

Our recent “Oil Price Collapse…Why the Surprise,” two-penneth highlighted the benefits of our investmentimer service, which is ideal for all kinds of market participants, be they private or professional investors, marketing or broker sales related or by advisors and planners. The free-trial offer is still available which includes any signals changes for Nikkei, which as you can see has provided good guidance to date.

By simply entering your contact detail here you will receive the next three months “Off the Peg Servicefree of charge, including the most recent signal.

It should assist you in making your own judgement.

Investment Markets Overview — W/E 13th February 2015

We must acknowledge we sometimes failed to live up to the standards the societies we serve rightly expected from us,” said HSBC’s current CEO, Stuart Gulliver, as revelations on alleged assistance by its Swiss division in respect of mass tax evasion by some of the Swiss bank’s wealthy clients, including establishment figures in the UK, were released. At the heart of the matter are the stolen data records by former HSBC IT employee, turned whistleblower, Herve Falciani, who initially handed the information to the French authorities who subsequently offered it to other governments around the globe. According to a BBC Panorama documentary aired this week, the accounts relate to 106,000 clients in 203 countries, going on to report that HSBC now faces criminal investigations in the US, France, Belgium and Argentina, but not in the UK, where HSBC is based.Falciani, dubbed the Edward Snowdon of Swiss banking, confirmed that he had sent an email offer to the British tax authorities and to the foreign office, but neither of them can recollect receiving it. This show is likely to run for a while yet as both of the main British political parties have ties to the former HSBC boss, Lord Green, who was on watch at the time, not to mention the numerous political donors who appear to be on the  leaked list.

13 February 15

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

There were two other big events this week, one on the Ukrainian conflict and the other on Greece’s mountain of Debt……

Charts:
1. Indices Weekly
2. US Sentiment  V US Retail Sales
3. E-Z GDP V German GDP
4. China CPI V Food  CPI
5.Commodity YTD  Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“Act on Facts, Not Speculation.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

Deflation Denial

The dreaded “D Word” has been popping up more frequently of late, having briefly hitting the headlines during the 2007/09 financial crisis, albeit that the majority of commentators focus on the “cost of goods and services,” better known as CPI, as opposed to “credit demand and the velocity of it within the financial system.”

The World’s central bank elite have done their best to “CON-vince” the herd that it will not happen on their watch and that they have the tools to stop the return of it, by way of chucking even more debt at a fundamental debt problem and by a delusional mantra that they actually control interest rates, at least the ones that matter to most living mortals outside of banking.

The “tools” referred to aren’t new as they would have you believe, they have been used during previous bouts of credit deflation, whether you look back in history to the l920s/1930s global deflation or indeed Japan’s more recent example:

13 Feb 2015 Blog 1

Think of it as financial boats, be they stocks, bonds, commodities or real estate, lifted by a tide of ever higher debt levels (inflation) versus the tide of debt falling, by way of reduced demand/repayment, or via default on problem debt (deflation), when those same financial boats fall in value until they reach a level that attracts fresh buyers.

The 1980s saw Japan’s financial boats elevated to unsustainable levels, thanks to the tsunami of debt which transpired under the noses of the Bank of Japan and other policy-makers, who ironically are supposed to preside over financial stability.

We have focussed on two asset classes, stocks and property (by way of land prices,) as they are the ones closest to the electorate, showing the relationship between the pair.

Charmer Carney,” the expensive Canadian boss at the Bank of England, is the latest central banker to have to acknowledge that deflation is likely this year for the UK under his watch. Predictably, he was quick to provide “CON-fidence” that he had the tools to keep it at bay, lower interest rates and more QE, failing to recognise that 5-years use of these tools had failed to hold it at bay.

 

As such perhaps it’s worth a peak at those same two asset classes for the UK:

13 Feb 2015 Blog 2

The Nationwide house price history has been used, as the data stretches back to 1952, where we can note the flat-line of the 1950s and 1960s when credit use was far more disciplined than the rising tide that commenced from the mid-1970s. Note also the flat-line for the UK’s main stock-index, the All-Share.

As with the example of Japan the two asset classes are linked and previous deflation scares, 1989 and 2008, both following stock-market tops, ushered in recessions and credit deflation with lower property prices.

It was over 24 years ago, on the 29th December 1989 that Japan’s Nikkei stock index hit its peak price of 38,957, with many commentators at the time predicting a target of 100,000. Prime property in Tokyo’s Ginza district was selling for $93,000 per square foot and the boom created enough wealth for the Japanese to buy landmarks like the Rockefeller Centre, whilst the land on which the Emperor’s palace sat was valued at more than the whole of California.

But the 1990s turned inflation into deflation as the debt tide slowed and then went into reverse. Stimulus packages and bailouts failed to prop up Japan’s stock and property markets and to prevent the deflationary collapse. Fast forward 24 years and the Nikkei 225 remains 54% lower, whilst land prices are 76% below that peak price level, with some prime property in Tokyo having falling to less than 1% of its peak value .

Many argue that the UK is not like Japan. That is true! Japan was in a much better position to fight off deflation than the UK is presently thanks to the high savings rate that Japan had going into the bust, whereas the UK hasn’t.

Japan’s bubble of the late 1980s didn’t deflate overnight and it wasn’t the result of a single catastrophic event. It has taken a long, long time for the easy credit that had inflated the stock and the real estate bubble to resolve.

Twenty plus years of hindsight can make for a lot of clarity and the idea that central bankers and their political masters can create inflation via the printing press has the case study of Japan against it.

       “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Investment Markets Overview –W/E 30th January 2015

Left met right this week as the Greek election victor, the far left “Syriza” party, led by 40-year old Alexis Tsipras, failed by just two seats to form a majority government, so they have hooked-up with the far right party called “Independent Greeks,” who disagree with just about everything that Syriza stand for, except that is for demanding a change in the terms of Greece’s bail-out and the country’s lost independence to European institutions. Whilst the new government and the troika know that a compromise is necessary in respect of both the “debt-terms” and continued “austerity demands” of Greece, the frailty of human emotions, particularly within the political classes and the likely demands for transparency by the electorate in respect of the horse-trading, will ensure volatile markets for a while yet. Meanwhile, adding to the mix, “Charmer Carney,” the Bank of England Governor, criticised the Euro-Zone’s austerity measures, suggesting that the Euro-area is slipping ever deeper into a debt-trap whilst the UK and the US are “escaping” from theirs’. Quite ironic in that the governor and his US counterpart have presided over policies that have vastly increased the debt-trap whilst boxing the central banks themselves into a very difficult corner on just how they manage to unwind their bloated “reserves,” as is starting to be realised at the Swiss National Bank.

30 Jan 15

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

January will certainly go down as a volatile month with investors’ struggling to understand the stream of conflicting economic data released g ……

Charts:
1. Indices Weekly
2. US GDP M on M V US GDP Y on Y
3. UK Consumer Credit V UK GDP
4. Japan Housing Starts V Japan CPI
5.Commodity YTD  Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

Belief Can be Manipulated Whilst Knowledge Cannot.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.