US Unemployment 2: Obama stumbles and a Miracle transpires

Last week we commented that the impending American jobs data for September was key to Bernanke’s QE3 infinity scheme, the trend going forward of the major US stock Indices and the likely outcome of the 6th November Presidential Election race.

Well, President Obama and republican challenger, Mick Romney, held their first of three televised debates just ahead of the job numbers and Romney came out on top, winning about 65% of the vote. With a little less than five weeks to go until the election the former Massachusetts governor scored most points in a debate primarily focused on the economy. The President was keen to ask voters to back his plan for the next four years, whilst repeatedly inferring that Romney’s plans were shrouded in secrecy. Meanwhile, Romney was eager to tick off the economic facts of the past 4 years, including a sharp spike in food stamp recipients, economic growth which is lower this year than last and 23m people out of work or who have stopped looking for work.

Miraculously, two days after the debate, the September unemployment rate at 7.8% was at exactly the same level as when Obama came into office, since when it has never come close. Also the U-6 rate, which includes part time workers and “marginally attached workers,” persons currently not working or looking for work but are available for a job, looks suspiciously close to the former, which statistically looks to be a stretch. Apparently 873,000 people said they either rejoined, or sought to rejoin, the labor force last month, a 40-fold increase from August’s gain and the biggest single-month increase in 29 years! One can sympathise with former GE boss, Jack Welch, who suggests that the books have been cooked. Either way, we are not sure that the American electorate will buy this number and it may yet come back to haunt the President.

Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful

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