Investment Markets Overview – w/e 24 Jan 2014

The IMF released its first update for 2014 on global growth for this year and for 2015. Not surprisingly, they were largely higher across the board except for China which is expected to drop modestly to 7.3% in 2015. Before we all get to exited however, it’s worth a reminder that this organisation’s track record on GDP projections is poor at best whilst its forecasts on global trade have been abysmal. Consider that at April 2012 world trade for 2013 was forecast to grow by 5.6% according to the IMF, which was revised lower to 5.5% a year ago, then to 4.9% last October. With global trade actually at 2.7% we are left to wonder how global GDP is expected to grow as trade contracts. Meanwhile, the Bank of England boss, Mark Carney, confirmed that his recent “big news on forward guidance,” in respect of UK interest rates being tied to unemployment levels, was really no guidance at all and the goalposts will have to be moved once again. More on this below. 

140124_chart

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

additional commentaries:

  • US economic data . . .

  • Euro-Zone   . . .

  • The UK . . .

  • Out East   . . .

  • The $US index  . . .

  • Within the commodities complex  . . .

  • Economic data due next week includes  . . .

  • As the great and the good attended the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos this week, 59 percent of Bloomberg subscribers surveyed said the economic outlook is improving, ,  . . .

Charts:

  • Indices Weekly
  • FHFA US House Price Index Y on Y vs Existing Home Sales M on MUK Retail Sales Y on Y vs UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y on Y
  • UK Average 3 Months Earnings Growth Inverted vs UK 3 Month Unemployment RateCommodity 1 Week Moves
  • China Retail Sales Y on Y vs China GDP Y on Y

Table:

               13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

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“When everyone is one side of the boat……

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Click  HERE to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter

which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

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