Investment Markets Overview – w/e 14 March 2014

Crimea’s 1.5m eligible voters will be asked this week-end on whether to rejoin Russia or to stay with Ukraine and with ethnic Russians making up 59% of the region against 24% ethnic Ukrainians, the result is fairly predictable. This move towards secession appears to have caught everyone by surprise, but why? A student of Socionomics would identify that the collective social mood of a Nation can be identified by its main stock-index and in Russia’s case it peaked back in May 2008, re-traced part of the subsequent losses until April 2011, since when it has slumped by 50%. As such, the collective social mood of Russia has been turning more negative for five years now, not since last week, and during negative social mood trends, polarisation within society and trends towards secession go hand in hand.

140314_1_chart

Note also the strong correlation of Russia’s stock-index to the price of Crude Oil, which has diverged of late. This would suggest that either the collective social mood within Russia is about to lighten-up OR the price of crude is about to crash. We will watch the January low of $91.61 very closely.

For more on our Socionomic input you may wish to consider our subscription services.

140314_2_chart

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:

  • US economic data . . .
  • Euro-Zone   . . .
  • The UK . . .
  • Out East   . . .
  • The $US index  . . .
  • Within the commodities complex  . . .
  • Economic data due next week includes  . . .
  • It was a year ago this week that the proverbial hit the fan in Cyprus, when the banking system went bust and the country needed a $US23BN “bail in,” as they are now called. The difference between this and a “bail out,”  . . .

Charts:

  1. Russia Stock – Index vs West-Texas Light Crude Price
  2. Indices Weekly
  3. US Adv Salse Y on Y vs Wholesalers Investories Monthly % Change
  4. UK BRC Sales Like for Like Y on Y vs UK GDP Q on Q
  5. SH Comp vs China Exports Y on Y
  6. Commodity 1 Week Moves

Table:              

   13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

Click  HERE to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed Charts for each section

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Due to holiday commitments there will be a two-week break for the weekly investment overview. We’ll be back for the week-ending 4th April.

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“Secession = Political Divorce”

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One response to this post.

  1. […] of Oil, highlighting the moving-average cross and the $79 support line, with the 14th March “Investment markets Overview” warning of a crash for both Oil and for Russian stocks, whereas our, “Gold Watch” missive of […]

    Reply

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