Investment Markets Overview — W/E 3rd April 2015

Last week saw the 3rd and final reading of the US Q414 GDP number, which remained at 2.2% annualised, less than half of the Q314 number. Goldman Sachs have lowered their expectation for Q115 to 0.7% and frankly anyone with half an interest in economic data will expect a slowing US economy, looking at the Dollar strength of late and its effect on overseas earnings for US corporations, the continued personal income weakness in February and the slowing job creation. Obamacare, which is perhaps the largest American tax increase in history, is kicking-in and further hurting consumption, not forgetting of course the ever increasing burden of debt servicing costs also act as a “drag anchor” on the economy. As such, one shouldn’t be too surprised to hear Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer announce this week that GDP data may be understating the health of the US economy, going on to say that he trusts the employment figures more. A look under the bonnet, however, reveals that whereas the figure of 5.5% may look impressive, the figures are fudged, at least according to Jim Clifton at Gallop.com, who observes, “anyone who is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job–if you are so hopelessly out of work that you’ve stopped looking over the past four weeks–the Department of Labour doesn’t count you as unemployed,” suggesting that as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Furthermore, he confirms that,” If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20–maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn–you’re not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.5%,” concluding that the official employment figures amount to a Big Lie.

3 April 2015

Subscribe to the Full Investment Markets Overview Newsletter which contains the following:-

Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
•Euro-Zone . . .
•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
•The $US index . . .
•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

After debating it for two decades, the Chinese authorities are to introduce a deposit insurance scheme ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Labour Participation V US Non-Farm Payrolls
3. UK Consumer Credit V UK GDP
4. China House Prices V Shanghai Comp
5. Commodity YTD  Moves

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

“There is the Truth and then the facts released by Government.

Click Here to view Details of the full version of this Newsletter which includes full text and detailed

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