Blind Man’s Bluff

Blind Man’s Bluff is a child’s game, a variety of tag where a player is blindfolded until he or she manages to tag another player who then takes on the blindfold. One version of the game was played in ancient Greece, where it was called “copper mosquito,” but the stakes being played ahead of this Sunday’s Greek referendum are neither a game nor likely to result in a mere mosquito bite, assuming of course that the bite is non-malarial.

There is much speculation and confusion over what is actually being voted on this weekend but a helpful schematic produced by the good folks at Bloomberg makes it a little clearer:

3 July 2015 Blog 1

That said, investors and the electorate remain partially or totally blinded from the full facts, due to the spin emanating from the bureaucratic power houses of the Troika, consisting of the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF, who, having missed the opportunity to resolve this crisis at a far lower cost by restructuring Greece’s debt back in 2010, are now employing bully-boy and girl ( Angela and Christine) tactics by humiliating the Greek people in some half-baked attempt to make an example of Greece to other Euro-Zone members. Furthermore, whereas in 2010 some 80% of Greek’s €252 billion then debt was on the balance sheet of many multi-national banks, the debt has now grown to €313BN, thanks to the devastating austerity measures imposed on the Greek people, and is now held by foreign tax-payers, predominantly European, who will pick-up the tab for the inevitable write-downs to come, regardless of a yes or no vote.

Just as the realisation is slowly dawning that a common currency could never fully work without its members giving up sovereignty to the unelected centre, a fact hidden and denied by the federalists until the markets started tipping their hand, this approaching show-down is also confirming that whilst it has been relatively easy to sign up to the euro, there are no exit procedures in place.

So how will the referendum go, Yes or No?

Frankly, I have no idea, but with the latest GPO poll suggesting 47% leaning towards a “yes” vote and 43% in the “no” camp, a consensus is building that the yes vote will prevail, driven by fear of a life outside of the euro by an electorate truly feeling the strain.

Aside of being an natural sceptic of consensus, a Socionomist will look at the country’s stock-index for guidance, as it’s the best barometer of a Nation’s collective social mood, just as was shown ahead of the recent UK general election in a post called “Election Echo.”

3 July 2015 Blog 2

In both nominal and real terms the Athens ASE index peaked in late 1999, ushering in a “secular bear market,” of which 2000/03 and 2007/09 are parts of it. This explains a host of Socionomic observations, such as the increased polarisation within society, politics included, not forgetting the increased pessimism and fear ushered in by financial stress.

Whilst the shorter term may see a stock-market bounce, regardless of the vote result, the yarning gap that remains between real and nominal prices for both Greece and the Euro, suggests far more pain still to come,despite any continued bluffs by blind commentators.






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