Socionomically Thinking

The excellent Bloomberg “daily brief overviews,” posed a question this week within its Asia edition, asking the question, “why are South Koreans more pessimistic about their economy than say the Japanese and China,” despite South Korea having avoided a recession during the global financial crisis and growing faster than many advanced nations.

The article goes on to quote from a Pew Research Centre report which states that only 21% of South Koreans are expecting an improvement in the economy over the next 12 months, compared with 24% in Japan and 84% in China, leaving Bloomberg to pose a further question, “are the South Koreans just generally gloomy?

A student of Socionomics, which states that social mood is patterned according to the Wave Principle, would look at a nation’s stock-index as a barometer of that nations social mood, recognising also that the stock-market leads economic activity, hence the index gives you not only a clue the general mood of society but also to the likely trend of economic data.

So let’s have a look at the three stock-indices

31 July Blog

QED I think, albeit that the end point of the chart is mid-June, just as the Shanghai Composite peaked, followed by a 35% crash over a very shot few weeks, which suggests that Chinese social mood is set to get a little gloomier, perhaps even vying with the South Koreans.

 Readers may wish to visit our end March post, called Shanghai Socionomicswhich made other interesting observations, including a warning on Chinese stocks.

 

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