Last Chance Saloon

A belated happy New Year to all of our “followers,” and may it be a happy, healthy and prosperous one for you, albeit that the markets have started it in a dramatic and volatile fashion.

It’s that time of year when analysts look back on their work of the past year, to reflect on how many were good calls as opposed to the bad, whilst crystal-ball gazing for the current year.

Well I am pleased to report that in the main, most of our analysis and price targets proved to be correct, particularly in the two stand-outs, the Oil price and China, which the herd is blaming for the recent drama. So rather than trawl through all of last year’s postings let us focus on these two areas.

First up was our January 2015 piece, “Oil Price Collapse…Why the Surprise?”

Within it you will note that we flagged a concern over the Oil price back in July 2014, when it was at $106 a barrel and one of our chart indicators had turned from buy to neutral. Furthermore, with the January 2015 updated chart, when the price was at $48, we noted a further signal change and suggested a shorter-term possible bounce:

22 Jan 2016 Blog

Well, the bounce duly happened, albeit not to the extent that was expected, and whilst the model signal remained in neutral on this weekly chart until recently, it reverted to sell in June 2015, at $60, on our daily chart, with a signal promptly notified by email to subscribers’ within our “bespoke” service, for them to act on as they saw fit.

As for China, we issued various observations and warnings, including the mid-April “Twin Peaks” post observing possible peaks for the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock-indices and then, following the initial crash, an August piece entitled “After the Bounce” which suggested a possible 15% to 25% bounce towards 3600-3800 for the SH Comp and a 5% to 10% bounce for the World Stock Index, after the May to August rout.

The SH Comp duly bounced to 3680 from the August low of 2870, before rolling-over once more, whilst the World Stock index managed a 9.6% rally before starting to collapse, as can be seen here:

22 Jan 2016 Blog 2

The markets, including the two mentioned above have started another bounce, but as to those targets and for any further downside, you really ought to subscribe to our very modestly priced investmentimer service. For the price of a round of drinks it could make the difference of a great 2016 to an awful one particularly if this relly is the last chance saloon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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