Trump Card

Last week’s commentary, “Brexit, Socionomically Thinking,” observed that collective social mood will decide the referendum, with the UK’s FTA-All Share stock-index being the best “barometer” of the country’s collective social mood.

The article confirmed why we look to the charts, as charts never lie! They do a pretty good job on analysing the collective social mood, and to a student of Socionomics, mood governs events, so charts are a very useful tool.

A chart of the 1970’s FTA-All Share showed “why” the Brits not only joined the EU in 1973, led by a Conservative Prime Minister, but voted “yes” by 67%/33% in a 1975 referendum to stay in it, this time under a Labour Prime Minister. So the politics was irrelevant!

So this week we look at the “Trump Phenomena,” which is sweeping across America, as billionaire businessman “the Donald” is far ahead in winning the Republican Party nomination to stand for the presidential election in November of this year.

 This week’s “Super-Tuesday,” when primaries in 11 states were held, Trump dominated for the Republicans as did Ms Clinton for the Democrats, with Hilary’s “victory speech,” attacking Trump by saying, “The rhetoric we’re hearing on the other side has never been lower. Trying to divide Americans between us and them is wrong and we’re not going to let it work:

Nice theory Hilary, but in practice it’s the collective social mood of the country, as identified by its main stock-indices, that decides on “inclusionism,” we and us, or “exclusionism,” us and them, with the former evident during a rising market / positive collective social mood and the latter during a falling market / negative collective social mood.

An example of this was shown last week in the guise of the 1970’s UK All-Share Index, where despite a devastating1972-74 bear market, the 1973 and ’75 EU decisions were made at near peak positive social mood points. Either impeccable timing by the respective governments, or more likely luck.

The mid-1970s was also a turbulent time for American politics, as Republican President Richard Nixon resigned from office in 1974 whilst facing an almost certain impeachment over the “Watergate scandal.” It is also interesting to note that oil prices were rocketing, following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, whereas today they have collapsed, following a debt-fuelled over-capacity binge. “Tricky Dickey” picked a bear market to orchestrate the break-in, whereas the philandering “I did not have sex with that women Clinton, Bill that is,” picked the near peak of the 1990s mega bull-market, in December 1998, to avoid impeachment:

4 March 2016 Blog 1

With 8-months still to go until the November 2016 US Presidential election, a lot can happen to sway the US electorate either way. There is, of course, one major difference between the 1970s and now, the former was a period of “stagflation,” anaemic economic growth and rapidly rising CPI, whereas today we reside in a period again with anaemic economic growth, but one leaning more to “de-flation.” But either way, both periods have a bearish tilt, which favours Trump.

A polarised society, the “us and them,” is a “trump card for the Donald,” as he can do no wrong, at least not yet. One glance at the market direction since mid-2015 supports the observations made:

4 March 2016 Blog 2

If you have enjoyed these studies of Socionomics, why  not attend the 9th April annual Social Mood Conference, details here. Furthermore, a massive amount of excellent social and market insights , to put you ahead of the curve, is available here  FREE of charge!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 responses to this post.

  1. […] wish to re-read the February/March 2016 overviews, “Brexit, Socionomically Thinking,” and “Trump Card” which were both pretty good guides to the outcome of those two events. A common denominator […]

    Reply

  2. […] so charts are a very useful tool. In fact we used charts of the Dow within the March 2016 “Trump Card” overview, which observed the […]

    Reply

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