Brexit, EU-rexit, It is only the Start

It is hard to believe that it’s over three months since penning the article, “Brexit, Socionomically Thinking,” which observed the fact that as mood governs events a chart of the UK’s stock-market is a good pointer as to the outcome of the 23rd June referendum, going on to explain that during bull phases for the market, collective social mood leans towards “inclusionism,” whereas when the market is falling within a bear phase, the opposite human trait, “exclusionism,” rises.

Ahead of the UK general election of May 2015, Prime Minister Cameron and the herd expected a continuation of a coalition government, as the opinion polls were in unison on that point, but both he and his European partners were equally concerned over the inroads being made by UKIP and other polarising parties across the EU, hence they entered into phoney negotiations with the result being his manifesto promise to hold a referendum, not actually expecting to hold one as he didn’t expect to win the election. Unfortunately for Cameron and for the other Europhiles, the timing of the referendum has coincided with a market bear phase.

Fast forward the 3-month interim period from February, an updated chart of the FTA All-Share index shows that despite a spirited “rally” the index has gone nowhere over the past 3-years and remains within the falling trend-channel in place since April of 2015.

3 June 2016

Whereas the polls in late February 2016 showed 55% in favour of continued EU membership, they are now running neck-and-neck, with the “leave camp” gaining ground, as will be expanded on within our impending “Investment Markets Overview for the week ending today.”

Lest you wonder why so many EU political figures are adding to the scare tactics employed by the “stay camp” a second chart, courtesy of CLSA, is presented below, which suggests that Brexit may become a EU-rexit in the not to distant future.

3 June 2016 2

If you still question the collective social mood within these member states, take one look at their respective stock-indices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

One response to this post.

  1. […] « Brexit, EU-rexit, It is only the Start […]

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: