Investment Markets Overview — W/E 6th January 2017

“Big ticket item”…. Is a term used to describe an item of high value such as houses, automobiles and certain durable goods like furniture. Within the financial world it’s the former two that receive special attention, particularly housing which perhaps should be re-classified as a “huge ticket item,” as price-to-earnings multiples have sky-rocketed globally. There will be plenty to discuss on real estate over this year but this week belongs to vehicle sales, as the latest numbers were released for the US, Japan and for the UK. At first glance the numbers look great, but aside of the grey-area of just what percentage are registered versus dealer stored, they are not quite as good as the headlines suggest. American “domestic” sales totaled 14.2m units in December, tantalisingly close to the pre-financial crisis level of June 2005 but still a long way short of the mid-1986 all-time high of 16.6m, particularly when population adjusted. Japan’s 265K shifted for the same month is a fair drop from the 481,000 of March 2014 and only a third of the 831K all-time high of March 1997. Meanwhile, the UK’s 178,000 tallied for December is tame compared to June’s all-time high of 522K, but it was sufficient to make 2016 the highest year ever for UK registrations, at 2.69m. With 80% of UK purchases completed on the “never-never,” better known as personal contract plans, 2016 may go down as the year the auto-bubble peaked, as interest rates march higher for one of the highest personal debt to GDP nations on the planet.

It was an interesting first trading week of the year, with the added impetus of an increased political market interference from the “new boys on the block,” the Trump and May show.

6-jan-17

 

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Additional Commentaries:
•US economic data . . .
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•The UK . . .
•Out East . . .
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•Within the commodities complex . . .
•Economic data due next week includes . . .

 With just two weeks to go until “the Donald’s” inauguration as the 45th President of the United States he shows little sign of reversing his ability to ……

Charts:
1.  Indices Weekly
2. US Unemployment Rate V US NFP
3. UK  Consumer Credit V UK Mortgage growth
4. Japan Labour Cash Earnings V Japan Vehicle Sales
5. Commodities Weekly

Table:

13 Indices, 11 columns of detailed information, for accurate analysis

                                             “Intervention can cause Uncertainty”

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One response to this post.

  1. […] with the context of its use! The report was on a topic covered within this column recently, “Big Ticket items,” the auto-sector, with a particular focus on the sheer number of “leased vehicles” that are […]

    Reply

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